...Thoughts on the California Senate Race

Finally! It's been a long time since California has had a competitive U.S. Senate race, largely because Republicans have nominated nice but unelectable candidates. According to the Los Angeles Times, liberal CA Democrat Barbara Boxer is vulnerable, largely because her poll numbers are stuck in the mid-40 range...a sign of trouble for any incumbent.

For her three Republican challengers, the news appears to also be good. Carly Fiorina and Tom Campbell each trail Boxer by 4 percentage points and Chuck Devore trails Boxer by five.

Just today, long-time political analyst Stu Rothenberg writes in CQ Politics:

In California, voters aren’t particularly enthusiastic about Sen. Barbara Boxer (D). She’s a polarizing political figure and running at or below 50 percent in ballot tests against either Assemblyman Chuck DeVore or businesswoman Carly Fiorina, two of the leading Republicans in the race.

Still, DeVore doesn’t have the breadth of appeal or money to defeat Boxer, while Fiorina has plenty of baggage.

Boxer’s prospects would take a hit, of course, if California Republicans were to nominate former Rep. Tom Campbell, a moderate who would have considerable statewide appeal — if he could accumulate the resources for an expensive statewide race. But Campbell’s past fundraising isn’t encouraging.

While this news may make Tom Campbell's campaign for the U.S. Senate crow...the challenge that he ultimately faces are two-fold -- and they're BIG ones. First, he simply cannot raise the money to compete against a well-funded Democrat incumbent like Barbara Boxer. Boxer and liberal special interest groups would spend whatever it takes to keep the entrenched incumbent in office...and Campbell would be left on the sidelines with lukewarm GOP support. Nominating him would be foolish for the California Republican Party...but they've done foolish things in the past. Second, Tom Campbell has a well-documented history of supporting tax increases, which should be TABOO in Washington this year. If he is the Republican nominee, he can't now say, "well, that was then, this was now."

On the Chuck Devore front, he is a really nice guy...but too ideologically conservative to get elected in the Golden State. He would notch 40 to 45 percent of the vote in the general election and Barbara Boxer would skate. Historically, California Republicans have placed ideology over electability. Let's hope that's not the case.

While Stu Rothenberg mentions that Carly Fiorina has "plenty of baggage," she has the resources at her disposal to define herself and her opponent -- and her pro-business, tough on defense positions make her infinitely electable. And, the fact that she would be a Republican woman running against Barbara Boxer would make for an interesting race -- two accomplished, tough-as-nails women slugging it out. I disagree with Rothenberg on his call about Campbell.

So, while the California Senate race appears to be in play...it really rests with whom Republican voters nominate to run against Boxer.

Only time will tell.